21, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton departed to visit the United Kingdom and North Africa, and in Tunis in the 24th International Conference of the Friends of the Syrian. Some people worry that the Syrian Friends of the International Conference may become a turning point in the Western military intervention in Syria.History is always a lot of similarities. Only in March 2011, a year ago, Hillary Clinton attended the Paris summit in Libya. After the meeting, has been a negative attitude on the military intervention in Libya a sudden 180-degree change in the decision to support the use of force against Libya. End of the session the same day, the West began military action against Libya.U.S. attitude to loosen21, at a press conference, White House spokesman Carney stressed that the United States still believes that Syria needs a "political solution", the United States does not wish to take any action that may lead to further militarization of Syria, because it might make Syria is in a dangerous situation . Newland, U.S. State Department spokesman, said the United States to support "political solution" to Syria.However, both Carney and Newland the day, said: "We do not want to see a sustained increase in violence. That is, if we can not make Bashar after yielding to pressure, we may consider other measures. "They are reluctant to explain" other measures ", including what, but after the White House or State Department refuse to discuss" other options ". This analysis pointed out that this may mean that the U.S. intervention in Syria's position has shifted.Moreover, the U.S. military had already sent to the UAVs to perform tasks in Iraq to Syria, to monitor the actions of the Syrian army on the "attack" of the armed opposition and innocent civilians. The U.S. official said, "This is not a precursor to military invasion, but to unmanned aerial vehicles to monitor the Syrian picture of the current conflict, and to intercept and monitor communications between the Syrian government and military," for the humanitarian crisis in Syria to find evidence. " On the 10th, the U.S. State Department has announced the Syrian army troops deployed heavy firepower satellite map provided to help the opposition. The satellite images show, the Syrian army heavy artillery units deployed in Halle, Lan Kusi and Holmes.More than U.S. congressmen, including the senior Senator McCain said earlier that Syria, the situation has been upgraded in order to avoid irreversible humanitarian catastrophe, the United States should "start to consider a variety of options, including the armed opposition . " McCain, 19, is visiting the Afghan capital Kabul said: "I do not need the U.S. government is directly involved in there is a way to provide weapons to the Syrian opposition and the Iranians and the Russians are providing weapons to Bashar, therefore, classification The opposition should be given weapons to protect themselves. "McCain said:" I not only do not oppose, but to support the U.S. weapons to Syria opposition. "He believes that the United States through third countries or the Arab League sending weapons to the Syrian opposition.Another version of the Paris Summit "?24, the Syrian Friends of the International Conference held in Tunis. The meeting was proposed by Tunisia to end the violent conflict of Syria, Hillary Clinton has set off to prepare participants to seek international agreement on more than 70 countries, including Russia and China are invited to.The reason why some people worry that the Syrian Friends of the International Conference will be another version of the military intervention in Libya, the West decided to Paris summit, because the international situation and the situation of a year ago there are many similarities.First of all, to participate in the Paris summit, the vast majority of Americans to discuss the U.S. does not want to expand the 'war' "in the Middle East and North Africa region. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have been "exhausted" America's strength, but also in the case of the defense budget reductions, the United States can no longer involved in the war. Before the Syrian Friends of the International Conference, the United States also continue to release "political solution" of the signal, but does not rule out other options ".Secondly, the West and the opposition to participate in, and seeks to overthrow the existing regime meeting. Paris summit on the Libyan representative of the opposition are interest on behalf of the Syrian side representatives are also to participate in the "meeting of the Friends of the Syrian opposition, the discussion is" classification opposition demands ". This is also the Russian, although were invited, but refused to take part in the cause of the meeting.Third, the West and the Arab League believes that the outbreak of civil war in Libya (Syria), the escalation of the situation worsening humanitarian disaster, they think that if we do not take action "may be too late. U.S. ambassador to the UN Susan Rice said a word: do not want a repeat of the tragedy of the Rwandan genocide in his term of office. Today, the West overwhelming Bashar Holmes massacre the opposition and the reports of civilians, the classification army of 21 shelling led to at least 63 people were killed and 200 injured, including at least two children were killed.The reason why the United States attitude in the Paris Summit, "a 180-degree change, one of the most important reason is that the Arab League to declare support for the establishment of a no-fly zone in Libya, the situation is a turning point. For the U.S., the active participation of the Arab countries is a necessary condition for military intervention. Today, the Arab League as the representative of Saudi Arabia has long been unequivocally support the classification opposition and said that the armed opposition, or even through military intervention, including all efforts to overthrow Bashar al-Assad regime.Political solution to the primary optionAlthough today's situation in Syria has many similarities with the original situation in Libya, but the U.S. government, military to military intervention still a negative attitude, mainstream academia is also involved in the war against the United States. Joint Chiefs of Staff the main Xidengpuxi said that Syria as a Libya, will be a "serious error" intervention in Syria would be "very difficult".The most important reason is, Syria, the situation has been not the classification of domestic problems that have been involved in many external forces in the interest including the Middle East powers, as well as America, Russia and other global big country and affect the situation as a whole, rush to the use of force may be will produce is difficult to control consequences. Russia a veto in the Security Council earlier this month the Syrian problem resolution vote, and resolutely opposed to military intervention, which is the United States had an important consideration.Syria's anti-ship missiles and chemical and biological weapons the United States to great fear.Dempsey had warned that Syria is sufficient to launch biological and chemical warfare.Libya domestic factions, many tribes, the tribes have their own armed forces, against the Qaddafi regime's forces have deep roots. Once the timing is right at home and abroad, anti-Qaddafi's armed forces will take the opportunity to the sky, forming a powerful down card forces ". Syria's domestic situation is completely different opposition forces are very weak, and is a mess. The supply of weapons to the opposition, the U.S. weapons may lead to loss of control, and the risk into the hands of terrorist organizations.Has now entered a critical period of the U.S. presidential election, when the use of force, may have a "quagmire effect", the U.S. and NATO forces can not withdraw within a few months, the re-election of Obama by the end of this effort can only be minus points, not points.Changing situation in the Middle East, the U.S. high-rise within the real decision-making is not known, but U.S. experts believe that America's "most intelligent" approach to support Turkey both NATO members, but also the role of regional powers in the Middle East to play a more big role, "the U.S. should not be directly involved in the war, at least for the time is still far from mature.
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